What is the current status of China's new energy industry?
I. Overview of the overall economy of China
1. China's current economic situation
The current world economic crisis has not changed the trend of China's rapid economic growth. China's future economy still shows high savings, high investment, high capital and high speed, as shown in Table 1. The analysis of China's economy is mainly analyzed from three parts: export, real estate and domestic demand. These three parts are called China's troika, and the increasingly integrated with foreign countries is the mainstream trend of the Chinese economy. The development of industry is a smooth growth process, which is closely related to consumption power and demand capacity. The accumulative growth characteristics of the industry make it necessary to have a free and controllable control when dealing with an industry, and not excessively suppress it. However, the changes in China's economic growth trajectory will be slowly started, and the adjustment model has obvious characteristics of demand-leading and deepening within the industry. In addition, the Chinese economy will enter a period of “second-time high-speed economic growth”, and the various changes in the growth patterns that people originally imagined are not as swift as they might be.
2. Focus on emerging strategic industries
1) New energy field: The key targets include hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, solar power, biogas power generation, geothermal utilization, clean coal utilization, and new energy vehicles. In addition, major nuclear power projects, large oil and gas fields and coalbed methane development, large advanced pressurized water reactors and high temperature gas cooled reactor nuclear power plants have also received much attention.
2) New material areas: Focused on microelectronics and optoelectronic materials and devices, new functional materials, high performance structural materials, nanomaterials and devices.
3) Information and communication fields: Key areas of interest include sensor networks, Internet of Things, integrated circuits, flat panel displays, software and information services, core electronic devices, high-end general-purpose chips and basic software products, and next-generation broadband wireless mobile communication networks. Specialized in large-scale integrated circuit manufacturing equipment and complete sets of processes.
4) Life sciences: The subjects of concern include transgenic breeding, stem cell research, biomedicine, biological breeding, breeding of new varieties of genetically modified organisms, major new drug innovations, and prevention of major infectious diseases.
Second, new energy classification and characteristics
The National Science and Technology Terminology Committee has approved the definition of new energy as: renewable energy that is systematically developed and utilized on the basis of new technologies. Such as nuclear energy, solar energy, wind energy, biomass energy, geothermal energy, ocean energy, hydrogen energy, etc. Specifically, it includes solar, wind, biomass, geothermal, nuclear fusion, hydro and ocean energy, and the energy produced by biofuels and hydrogen derived from renewable energy sources. So in summary, two important features of new energy are new technologies and renewable.
The classification of new energy in the world can be divided into three categories: traditional biomass energy, large and medium-sized hydropower and new renewable energy. Among them, new renewable energy includes small hydropower, solar energy, wind energy, modern biomass energy, geothermal energy, and ocean energy (tidal energy). According to ICTresearch research and analysis, the future new energy sources include: wave energy, combustible ice, coalbed methane, microbes, and fourth-generation nuclear energy.
Third, the development status of the new energy industry
The International Energy Agency (IEA) conducted a study on the demand for international electricity from 2000 to 2030. Studies have shown that the average annual growth rate of total electricity generation from renewable energy sources will be the fastest. The IEA study believes that non-hydrogen renewable energy generation will grow faster than any other fuel in the next 30 years, with an annual growth rate of nearly 6%, and its total power generation will increase five-fold between 2000 and 2030. By 2030, it will provide 4.4% of the world's total electricity. ICTresearch believes that the IEA research is too conservative. By 2030, renewable energy generation should account for at least 10% of the world's total electricity, and 10 to 15 times.
1. Characteristics of China's new energy market
China's wind power resources are mainly in the northeast, northwest and Inner Mongolia, and coal power resources are mainly in Heilongjiang, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and northwestern Gansu. Hydropower resources are mainly concentrated in the southwestern region, Sichuan and Yunnan, and the two lakes and two regions. However, the center of power consumption is in the coastal areas. Therefore, China's energy-generating areas and power consumption centers are not matched. This has certain tests for grid construction and energy utilization.
2. Status of China's new energy market
1) Photovoltaic: The short-term gloom of the market does not cover up the long-term splendor, and the localization opportunities for photovoltaic accessories are receiving much attention. The photovoltaic industry is experiencing oversupply caused by the growth rate of capacity expansion far exceeding the growth rate of demand. The whole industry chain is under pressure from falling prices and falling profit levels. ICTresearch believes that in the short term, components, batteries, silicon wafers and polysilicon are under pressure to reduce profits. However, the long-term decline in terminal prices is conducive to achieving PV parity online earlier, and ICTresearch maintains the industry's long-term high-stakes judgment.
2) Wind power: The industry integration is intensifying, and the leading advantages of the industry will become more prominent, focusing on the blue ocean market where domestically produced fan materials are used. The downward pressure on the whole industry caused by short-term oversupply will continue. The policy aspect of the rise of the threshold of wind power manufacturing and the emphasis on industry standardization will help the wind power industry to go out of disorderly competition and increase industry concentration. In the future, the industry will show a strong and strong trend.
3) Nuclear power: The security risks are huge, waiting for the policy to be clear. Due to the far-reaching impact of Japan's nuclear power accidents, countries have successively issued policy plans to gradually decommission nuclear power plants; domestic policies have not changed the current nuclear power construction plan, but construction progress may slow down, and future approval standards will become more stringent.
4) New batteries: The mass production of new energy vehicles and energy storage markets can be started, focusing on the release of battery materials suppliers. The policy aspect is currently preceded by demonstration operations. ICTresearch believes that the support of local governments has provided a good policy environment for the operation of new energy vehicles; the charging/replacement mode has provided the necessary hardware facilities for the operation of new energy vehicles.
Fourth, detailed analysis of subdivided products
1. The development history of the world photovoltaic market
In the pattern of energy shortage, energy conservation and emission reduction, the excellent attributes of solar energy safety, pollution-free and unlimited resources are bound to make solar energy the ultimate energy source for mankind. The photovoltaic industry will develop rapidly in the long run under the guidance of policy support, cost reduction and energy advantages.
2. The main driving factors and game methods of the PV market?
On August 1, 2011, the website of the National Development and Reform Commission officially announced the implementation of unified on-grid tariffs for non-tendered PV projects. The NDRC will adjust in time according to factors such as changes in investment costs and technological progress.
On August 12, 2011, the China Resources Comprehensive Utilization Association Renewable Energy Special Committee issued the “China PV Leveling Price Internet Roadmap” in Beijing. According to the following roadmap, the PV on-grid price in 2009 was 1.5 yuan/kWh, and the annual price dropped by 8%; the thermal power grid-on-grid price increased by 6% every year. Then, in 2014, the price of electricity for industrial and commercial use in China first exceeded the on-grid price of photovoltaic power generation, and it was the first to achieve “fair price online”.
3. Status of subdivided products in the photovoltaic market
The photovoltaic inverter is the core power regulation component of the photovoltaic system, accounting for 10% to 15% of the cost of the entire grid-connected photovoltaic system, and has a high technical content. At present, the global inverter market is mainly controlled by SMA, with a market share of more than 40%; second-tier manufacturers such as KACO, FRONIUS, and SIEMENS? account for about 30% of the global market. At present, domestic PV inverter manufacturers are in the initial stage of growth and development potential, but the industry concentration is high and it is difficult to enter.
4. Current status and analysis of wind power market
After experiencing a doubling of China's wind power installed capacity for four consecutive years from 2006 to 2009, the installed capacity of wind power in 2010 was 18.92 million kW, a record high, as shown in Figure 7. In the next few years, the growth rate of China's wind energy industry will decline, and there will be a serious situation of overcapacity in wind turbines. The subsidy for wind power procurement will also be cancelled. ICTresearch expects that China's wind power construction will enter a period of steady growth from 2012.
5. Status of subdivided products in the new battery market
Since the implementation of the demonstration and promotion of energy-saving and new energy vehicles for more than two years, the demonstration and promotion has begun to take shape. Up to now, the total number of energy-saving and new-energy vehicles in 25 pilot cities has exceeded 10,000, of which more than 1,000 private energy vehicles have been purchased, nearly 100 charging/replacement stations have been built, and more than 4,500 charging piles have been built. More than 330 million kilometers. However, the task of demonstration and promotion of energy-saving and new-energy vehicles is arduous, and there are still big challenges. It is necessary to strengthen cooperation and advance together.
In the first five months of 2011, the cumulative production of domestic lithium-ion batteries reached 1.054 billion, up 21.36% year-on-year; the cumulative output of alkaline secondary batteries such as nickel-metal hydride and nickel-cadmium was 281 million, an increase of 19.73% year-on-year. The cumulative output of the battery was 59.082 million kVA, an increase of 8.62% year-on-year. From the situation of a single month, the growth rate of lithium-ion battery production has gradually declined from a high level; the monthly growth rate of alkaline secondary batteries such as nickel-hydrogen and nickel-cadmium has bottomed out. The monthly growth rate of lead-acid batteries is declining. ?
The volume of the power battery market still needs to wait. For the power battery market, which is the most concerned about the market, ICTresearch believes that the prospects are unquestionable, but the timing of its volume launch should be around 2013. At present, the development of new energy vehicles is in the stage of perfecting infrastructure, determining relevant standards and determining the business model. The process of game and positioning between relevant interest groups has not ended. Therefore, it still takes a certain amount of time to actually start the inflection point. For the energy storage market with the same space, ICTresearch believes that its development point should be subject to high cost after the large-scale application of power battery, and it is difficult to bring substantial impact to the industry.
Fifth. Industry overall strategy recommendations
In the face of such a huge potential market, new energy products manufacturers, more types, technology development is relatively fast, so the competition will be more intense. Therefore, how to grasp the needs of customers, how to deal with financial pressure from the international market, how to seek better partners, how to maintain cost leadership, technology leadership, and environmental advantages, these issues are aspects that we should consider carefully. To solve these problems, we must lead the new energy industry.
Contact Person: Mr. Xu